🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.