Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
