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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater change with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.